Al-Nassr are one win from the 2025-26 Saudi Pro League, and their attacking firepower makes them heavy favourites to close it out on the final day. They face Damac at Al-Awwal Park on May 21; a victory will lift Jorge Jesus’s side to 86 points and render Al-Hilal’s result irrelevant. The arithmetic is simple: Al-Nassr go into the last round two points clear on 83, while a draw would leave them on 84 and give Al-Hilal a path back if they win. The match arrives with pressure after a stoppage-time own goal in last week’s Riyadh derby and a defeat in the AFC Champions League 2 final, but Al-Nassr’s home form and Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence still tilt the tie in their favour.

Start with the read: Al-Nassr are one win from the title and they carry the tools to get it. Their attack has been the league’s most productive, with 87 goals in the league so far, and Cristiano Ronaldo’s 26 strikes make him the single most dangerous player on the pitch. The arithmetic is straightforward. Win and the crown is theirs. Draw and they drop to 84 points, leaving Al-Hilal able to overtake them with a win, with identical head-to-head records forcing goal difference to decide the title.

The numbers and the scenario

The fixture at Al-Awwal Park is pencilled in for May 21 as the 34th and final round of the Saudi Pro League. Al-Nassr head into that match on 83 points. A win by any margin takes them to 86 and seals the championship regardless of what Al-Hilal do that day. A draw puts them on 84, and Al-Hilal could then snatch the crown with a victory. The head-to-head tie-breaker is already neutralised in the event of identical records, since goal difference would become decisive.

Form and history favour Al-Nassr. They're unbeaten in nine home league matches, with eight wins, and have beaten Damac in 10 of the 13 meetings between the clubs. The sides met in January 2026 when Al-Nassr won 2-1. Damac haven't taken a point off Al-Nassr since April 2021, and they have yet to beat a top-five team this season. All of that means Damac’s margin for error is vanishingly small if they hope to derail the title run.

Selection questions and momentum

Jorge Jesus may also have to navigate short-term absences. Marcelo Brozovic was ruled out with a groin complaint and didn't join full training, leaving Saad Al Nasser reported as a possible replacement. Abdullah Al-Khaibari was listed as doubtful with a hamstring issue. Previews expecting Al-Nassr to start Bento in goal and a back four of Boushal, Simakan, Al-Amri and Martinez, suggested a midfield of Coman, Al-Najei, Al-Hassan and Mané, with Joao Félix and Cristiano Ronaldo leading the attack.

Mastheads

That projected eleven underlines how the club plans to tilt the match toward attack. Bento conceded a stoppage-time own goal in last week’s Riyadh derby that denied Al-Nassr victory. The same goalkeeper was on the losing side in the AFC Champions League 2 final against Gamba Osaka. Those two results add pressure, but they're also recent enough to sharpen rather than blunt the team’s focus.

The attack that has produced 87 league goals should be able to create the chances needed on home grass.

Damac arrive with their own stakes. Sitting 15th on 29 points, they remain in a live relegation battle and could still be dragged into the bottom three depending on results elsewhere. The visitors will look to defenders and attackers in form: Abdelkader Bedrane has been influential and is scoring, and forwards Valentín Vada and Okita are named as threats who could unsettle Al-Nassr. Damac’s likely starting eleven has Kerwin in goal, a back line of Hawsawi, Harkass, Bedrane and Al-Obaid, and midfield presence from Sylla, Abdullah and Vada.

Momentum counts in May. Damac’s recent win over Al-Fayha and Bedrane’s scoring form give them confidence.

But the gulf across the season remains clear. Al-Nassr’s sustained dominance, their home record, and the simple mathematics of the table make the visitors' path narrow. For Damac to survive or turn the fixture into a meaningful point haul, they must either win or hope that Al-Nassr slip in the final moments again.

On balance, the numbers favour the hosts. Al-Nassr’s mix of firepower and home form, plus the presence of Ronaldo and attacking starters like Joao Félix, sets up a match where a clear offensive plan could end the title race before Al-Hilal’s result matters.

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Al-Nassr’s final standing will be decided on May 21 at Al-Awwal Park. A win confirms them as 2025-26 Saudi Pro League champions. If they draw, the title will hinge on Al-Hilal’s result against Al-Fayha the same day.

This article was created with AI assistance.