Satellite images showed Kharg Island's loading jetties empty on May 8, May 9 and May 11, the longest multiday run without ocean-going tankers at Iran's main export terminal since Feb. 28. The pause, recorded in European Sentinel imagery and compiled by Bloomberg, comes as Iran faces mounting pressure on onshore storage and growing use of tankers as floating storage. That combination risks squeezing Tehran's oil export receipts, because analysts say Kharg handles roughly 90-94 percent of the country's crude shipments. No source pointed to a scheduled inspection or new satellite pass that would clarify whether the pause will continue; the most recent imagery cited is dated May 11.

Satellite imagery and industry trackers show a clear pattern over the first half of May. European Sentinel photos, compiled in a Bloomberg analysis, recorded all berths at Kharg Island empty on May 11, and found no ocean-going tankers at the facility on May 8 and May 9. Analysts described the sequence as the longest uninterrupted idle period observed at the terminal since a wave of U.S. And Israeli strikes on Feb. 28 set off the current disruptions.

How the pause matters to Iran and global supply

Kharg isn't a minor loading point. Kpler, the market intelligence firm, says the island functions as Iran's main collection, storage and loading hub, with pipelines built over decades to concentrate exports there. Kpler reported that 94 percent of Iran's crude exports left on tankers from Kharg in the year before the war. Other analysts place the share nearer 90 percent, but their conclusions point in the same direction, that Kharg dominates Tehran's export architecture.

The concentration makes any sustained disruption consequential. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission estimated that about 90 percent of Iran's crude exports flowed to China before the conflict began. JPMorgan warned that a strike on Kharg would carry major implications for Iran's economy and for global oil markets, reflecting how damage at the terminal could quickly dent Tehran's foreign-exchange receipts. A finance-market note cited in one of the reports said oil benchmarks climbed past US$115 a barrel after the mid-March strikes, and market commentary flagged the possibility of substantially higher prices if Kharg's export function were lost.

Floating storage, filling tanks and limited observation

Trends in tanker movements help explain why the jetties might appear idle even as crude leaves Iran. With large crude carriers unable or unwilling to transit the Strait of Hormuz without increased risk after a U.S. Naval blockade began in mid-April, a flotilla of vessels has gathered as floating storage east of Kharg and off other Iranian ports. Compiled satellite and tanker-tracking imagery show the count of very large crude carriers rising from three on April 11 to at least 18 by May 11.

Industry trackers and imagery suggest onshore tanks are also filling, and that combination of floating and onshore storage is creating mounting pressure on capacity. Analysts warned that if Kharg remains idle while storage saturates, Iran could be forced into deeper production cuts.

A May 6 image was reported to show a roughly 3,000-barrel spill at the facility, a claim Tehran denied, and subsequent images didn't clearly show loadings at the jetties.

Mastheads

Not all indicators point in the same direction. A separate report cited TankerTrackers.com as observing multiple tankers loading at Kharg on a Wednesday and placed total exports since Feb. 28 at 13.7 million barrels. That tally and that observation aren't visible in the Sentinel images compiled in the Bloomberg analysis. Analysts note the satellite record isn't continuous, because Sentinel orbital coverage creates gaps on some days. The record shows 33 satellite observations of the Kharg jetties on 73 days since Feb. 28, and only two earlier images before this recent run showed no tankers moored.

The gaps matter. Absence of a vessel in a single image doesn't prove a permanent stoppage, and different tracking methods produce different snapshots. Still, a run of empty jetties on three dates spanning a week is unusual by the metrics analysts are using, and it comes as storage indicators are flashing amber.

Market participants and policy watchers are watching specific downstream effects. If Kharg's loading capacity is compromised for a prolonged period, Iran's export revenues could fall and available crude for global markets could tighten. Estimates cited in the reporting put Kharg's theoretical loading capacity in the millions of barrels per day, a concentration that means any sustained loss of throughput could be felt beyond Iran's borders.

At the same time, short-term oil-price moves have already shown sensitivity to strikes near Kharg. After mid-March attacks, crude benchmarks rose above US$115 a barrel, an immediate market response that analysts said would be amplified if Kharg's export capabilities were removed entirely. JPMorgan and other finance-market notes framed those risks for both Iranian fiscal strain and global price volatility.

Observers also flagged the role of alternative storage strategies. The rise in very large crude carriers anchored offshore, and the reported use of tankers as floating storage, can mask true export flows and delay the impact of capacity constraints.

But those stopgaps have limits. If onshore tanks fill and floating storage reaches practical caps, production cuts are a realistic outcome.

Finally, reporting across the imagery and tracker datasets diverged on timing and scale. Bloomberg's compilation of Sentinel images provided the clearest public record of the three empty dates, while other trackers offered competing accounts of loading activity. Kpler's data on Kharg's share of exports and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission estimate on destination concentration were consistent on the terminal's centrality.

With those different vantage points, analysts stress caution in drawing definitive conclusions from any single set of images. Still, the pattern of empty jetties on May 8, May 9 and May 11, combined with rising floating storage and signs of filling tanks onshore, points to a market under unusual strain.

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Sentinel's public record shows 33 observations of the Kharg jetties across 73 days since Feb. 28, and the latest image is dated May 11, a gap analysts say complicates any definitive reading of current export activity.

This article was created with AI assistance.