Iran's political centre appears intact despite recent strikes aimed at its leadership, analysts say. Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told CBS News he thinks Tehran is unlikely to surrender its missile or nuclear capabilities, a view that constrains both diplomatic and military options as Gulf states and international shipping feel the effects.

Iran's political centre appears intact despite the removal of its top leader. Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the regime won't surrender 'in a million years.' He gave the assessment in an interview about the campaign that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and other top officials.

Why analysts say the regime stands firm

Citrinowicz said U.S. And Israeli planners assumed the regime would collapse after the air campaign. He said that assumption was flawed. "All the Iranian experts knew that it's not going to be the case," he said. "This institution is much more stronger than the human being," he added.

He argued ground forces would be the only real way to force change. He warned that using ground troops would be a dangerous gamble. The man also said Iran could move toward building a nuclear weapon under new leadership, because the late ayatollah had been reluctant to cross that threshold.

The strikes that killed the late supreme leader took place on Feb. 28, according to the account in the interview. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's second son, was named supreme leader after those strikes. Analysts quoted in the sources say his elevation is likely to harden Tehran's posture rather than prompt surrender.

Military and diplomatic fallout

Iran has broadened the conflict. The country has struck Gulf states with missiles and drones, drawing regional neighbours into the fighting.

Those strikes have targeted shipping and raised international alarm about the Strait of Hormuz.

Mastheads

U.S. Negotiators remain sceptical of Tehran's overtures. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator, said an Iranian proposal, to loosen control over the Strait of Hormuz in return for lifting a U.S. Blockade, doesn't meet core U.S. Demands. He told an interview that the nuclear question remains central to Washington's position.

Rubio said negotiators in Washington must judge whether the people making offers in Tehran have the authority to bind rival factions. He also raised doubts about how much credibility Mojtaba Khamenei has compared with his late father.

President Trump has given mixed timelines for the war's end. In public remarks, he said the U.S. Had "already won in many ways" but would press on to achieve "ultimate victory." He added that the U.S. Would keep pressure on Iran until goals were met.

Economic lifelines and endurance

Tehran's ability to keep exporting oil is a key element in its resilience. Britannica's country overview notes that by early 2026 China had become Iran's leading customer for crude oil, taking more than 90 percent of Iran's exports, roughly 1.5 million barrels per day. The report said that arrangement helped Iran keep foreign revenue flowing despite sanctions.

That trade relationship gives Tehran a source of hard currency and a way to sustain state functions. It also complicates external pressure. If sanctions can't fully choke off oil receipts, then economic coercion has limits as a lever for forcing political change inside Iran.

Strategy questions for the U.S. And allies

Citrinowicz criticised the planning behind the strikes and the exit strategy. He said policymakers relied on the idea that killing the supreme leader would topple the regime. He said that assumption proved mistaken.

Those strategic errors, he said, make it harder to see an end to the war. He warned that Iran may seek a new deterrent if it believes conventional forces and missile stocks are at risk. He said a nuclear option could become more attractive to Tehran under a leader willing to cross the previous thresholds.

The conflict has already changed regional calculations. Gulf states are coping with missile and drone strikes. Shipping firms and navies are adjusting routes and security measures in response to attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Those practical steps are immediate effects of the widened fighting.

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In the CBS News interview, Citrinowicz said regime change is very unlikely without ground forces, leaving diplomats and militaries with few clear options.

This article was created with AI assistance.