Two strikes, on Sept 9, 2025 and Feb 28, 2026, have altered the geometry of air warfare. Both used aircraft that stayed outside the target state’s sovereign airspace to release air-launched ballistic missiles that completed their flights independently. The second strike opened the United States' declared campaign, labelled Operation Epic Fury, and included a blast near the compound of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in central Tehran. Analysts say the repeated use of this over-the-horizon launch and ballistic-terminal-strike sequence removes a core constraint of conventional air operations and forces a reassessment of deterrence and air-defence planning.

The read is simple and consequential. The part everyone will quote is the footage and the headlines. This part that matters most is the method. Two separate missions, months apart, used the same operational architecture to strike deeply without penetrating the target state's airspace.

How the strikes worked

Both missions used an Israeli F-15I flying corridors outside the targeted country’s sovereign airspace. For the Doha mission on September 9, 2025, the jet reportedly aligned roughly with the latitude of the Saudi port of Yanbu and remained over international waters to avoid Saudi overflight and its multilayered air-defence systems. From that corridor the aircraft released an air-launched ballistic missile from the Sparrow family, likely the Silver Sparrow variant.

After release, a rocket booster ignites and boosts the weapon into a suborbital, near-space trajectory. Midcourse the weapon follows a ballistic arc outside the dense layers of atmosphere and beyond the engagement envelopes of conventional air-defence systems. The terminal phase is a near-vertical, hypersonic re-entry and steep descent onto the target. That flight profile compresses reaction time for point defences, because the final approach is fast, steep and difficult to intercept with systems optimised for lower-altitude, cruise threats.

The September 2025 strike in Doha targeted a meeting convened to review a US ceasefire proposal and, according to reporting, prompted an Israeli apology because the target was political rather than a clear military objective. Video and verified footage from the February 28, 2026 attack showed explosions in central Tehran near the presidential palace, the National Security Council, and a location close to the offices of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It was not immediately known whether the supreme leader was present at the time of the attack.

Mastheads

Strategy, systems and the new constraint

The February 28 operation coincided with coordinated United States and Israeli attacks on multiple Iranian sites, including facilities the US said were part of Iran’s nuclear programme at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. The United States labelled its Iran campaign Operation Epic Fury. In a public statement, President Donald Trump said the US had begun "major combat operations" against Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed a joint operation and framed it as aimed at eliminating an existential threat. Mr.

Trump also warned of possible US casualties and presented the strikes as necessary to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon.

What ties the missions together isn't only the weapon but the operational construct. Analysts describe a fused C7ISR architecture underpinning the strikes. That construct combines cyber tools, cognitive warfare elements, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and command networks to accelerate decision-making and deconflict complex sequences. In that model the carrier aircraft functions primarily as a delivery platform and sensor node, while the overall system of sensors, cyber links and shooters drives timing, target discrimination and lethality. The decisive element becomes the weapon system and its networks rather than the penetrating aircraft.

That shift matters. Traditional air-defence planning rests on the assumption that an attacker must penetrate airspace, accept detection, and then face layered defenders. Over-the-horizon air-launched ballistic missiles bypass that sequence. They travel well above the dense atmosphere during midcourse and re-enter steeply. Point-defence systems therefore have less time and fewer windows to engage. In practical terms, countries that relied on geographic denial or layered interception now face an added problem set: how to detect, attribute and respond to threats that begin and largely complete their flight outside sovereign airspace.

For regional planners the implications are political as much as technical. Deterrence and escalation thresholds depend on what states believe they can prevent, and what they believe will invite painful retaliation. A strike near the offices of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the opening of Operation Epic Fury together change the signals being sent. They show a willingness to accept strikes on command-and-control and high-value political targets while minimising risk to attacking aircraft. That combination compresses decision timelines for defenders and complicates post-strike attribution and proportionality debates.

Finally, the operational precedent is tangible. The September 2025 operation in Doha and the February 2026 attacks in Tehran used the same over-the-horizon launch-and-ballistic-terminal-strike sequence. Analysts assess the repeated use of these techniques has set a precedent that other states may seek to emulate, complicating traditional air-defence postures and raising new questions about escalation management in crowded regional theatres.

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The two over-the-horizon ALBM strikes, Sept 9, 2025 and Feb 28, 2026, the latter tied to Operation Epic Fury and striking near Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound, establish an operational precedent other states may seek to copy, complicating air-defence planning and escalation management in crowded regional theatres.

This article was created with AI assistance.