Xi said the Iran conflict has left the world “beset by disarray.” He made the remark while meeting Spain’s prime minister in Beijing.

Xi’s warning and his diplomatic pitch

Chinese President Xi Jinping told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that the eruption of war around Iran has weakened global order. He used stark language — saying the world was "crumbling into disarray" — and urged closer coordination between Beijing and Madrid to respond to rising geopolitical tensions. Xi framed stronger China‑Spain ties as a stabilizing force for broader China‑EU relations, saying both sides should defend multilateralism and strengthen communication.

The tone was clearly intentional.

Xi’s comments came during Sánchez’s state visit, which focused on trade and investment amid the growing conflict in the Middle East. Sánchez, for his part, has criticised the recent US‑Israeli strikes on Iran and described those actions as "illegal," while Spain has taken practical steps such as closing its airspace to US warplanes involved in the campaign and refusing use of its military bases for related operations. That stance makes Madrid a notable European outlier and gives Xi an opening to argue for China’s role as a mediator.

China is moving to seize that opening.

Beijing’s five‑point plan and public diplomacy

Over recent weeks Beijing has rolled out a diplomatic push aimed at putting its stamp on efforts to contain the Iran war. Chinese officials, in partnership with Pakistan, have promoted a five‑point proposal for ending the fighting and have publicly opposed a United Nations proposal that would allow use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said China has been working "tirelessly for peace" since the outbreak of the war.

At the same time, Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, has urged a ceasefire to "prevent the situation from escalating and avoid the spillover and spread of the flames of war."

However, analysts and some former diplomats remain sceptical. Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, called the Iran war "the priority of all countries in and outside the region," and said Beijing sees an opportunity to demonstrate leadership. Danny Russel, a former senior U.S. Diplomat and distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, described China’s diplomacy as "performative," comparing Beijing’s five‑point proposal to earlier plans that he said were heavy on rhetoric and light on follow‑through.

That mix of messaging and manoeuvring is shaping how capitals respond.

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How other governments are reacting

European capitals are sending mixed signals. Spain has pushed hard in public against military strikes it views as unlawful. Madrid is also trying to position itself as a bridge between the European Union and Beijing — a role Pedro Sánchez mentioned when he urged China to demand that international law be upheld and to press for an end to conflicts in Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Ukraine.

Washington appears cautious about lending Beijing a leading mediation role. Some US officials have signalled little enthusiasm for formally endorsing China’s efforts — in part because giving China a visible diplomatic win in the Middle East could shift international influence. At the same time, the two superpowers are preparing for high‑level talks: a summit between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has been on Beijing’s calendar, a factor that observers say adds urgency to China’s attempt to shape the diplomatic narrative.

Economic fallout and the Canadian connection

The Iran fighting has already affected markets. Observers point to higher oil prices and wider strains on trade and shipping routes as immediate economic consequences. That matters to Canada because our economy is linked to global energy markets and to trade flows across the Atlantic and Pacific.

Canada exports crude oil and refined products, and Canadian businesses depend on predictable shipping lanes and stable commodity prices. A spike in crude that tightens energy markets would pressure consumers and businesses — higher fuel costs feed through to transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing. At the same time, global trade uncertainty can slow investment and weigh on export demand for Canadian goods, from machinery to natural resources.

This doesn’t mean Canada will face a direct crisis immediately. But elevated energy prices plus policy uncertainty abroad make planning harder for Ottawa, for businesses and for households. The Bank of Canada watches global inflation drivers closely; sustained higher oil prices would factor into the central bank’s decisions about interest rates and growth forecasts.

Geopolitics, alliances and the risk of escalation

Beijing argues its diplomatic approach will contain the conflict and fend off wider escalation. Wang Yi cast China as a stabilizing force, saying it can help keep channels open and bring parties back to the negotiating table. Xi echoed that, urging stronger global coordination and a defence of multilateralism.

But the war has already produced dangerous incidents. The fighting escalated when Iran shot down two U.S. Military aircraft, an event described in diplomatic reporting as marking a new phase of confrontation. The risk of further incidents — in and around critical waterways like the Strait of Hormuz — keeps regional security fragile and raises the odds of accidental wider clashes.

That’s why Beijing’s public appeal for calm matters beyond symbolism. A recognised mediator could help lower the temperature; however, mediation only works if all parties accept it. Skeptics argue that China’s proposals so far are heavy on principles and short on enforceable steps, while others say China may be the only major power with enough ties to some regional actors to broker at least temporary pauses.

What to watch next

Diplomatic activity will be the clearest sign of whether Beijing’s initiative has traction. Look for whether parties at war respond to China’s five‑point plan, whether regional states that rely on Western security guarantees shift position, and whether planned summitry between Xi and President Trump — already a background factor — changes Washington’s posture toward Chinese mediation.

For Canada, the immediate priorities will be clear: monitor global energy markets, ensure supply chains stay open, and coordinate with allies on measures to limit escalation. Ottawa will also weigh whether to align publicly with European partners pressing for legal accountability or to pursue quieter diplomacy that supports de‑escalation.

Beijing insists it wants ceasefire and talks; Madrid wants stronger legal constraints on military action; Washington is wary of boosting China’s diplomatic standing. The tug of war over who gets to lead a negotiated end to the conflict is under way — and the result will shape global politics and markets for months to come.

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“World order is crumbling into disarray,” Xi Jinping, President of China, said.

This article was created with AI assistance.